Current PhD student Ivy Seidel published the peer-reviewed paper, Investigating nuclear energy viability in Texas with decision making model GenX, in the journal Energy Economics. This paper focuses on the analysis of the economic viability of Nuclear Power in Texas. Seidel utilized open source capacity expansion model GenX to weigh the cost of unserved energy against the cost of implementing nuclear power in the face of electricity demand growth Texas. ERCOT is expected to experience a dramatic increase in the number of data centers being constructed due to the favorable economic landscape of the state, this would greatly impact industrial power draw and need to be accounted for in the coming years. A sharp rise in power demand along with expected population growth is predicted to cause a near doubling of the average electricity demand in Texas by 2030.
Important takeaways:
- Nuclear power, while currently not cost-competitive, is an important part of the fuel mix that Texas will need in 2030 as electricity demand increases.
- Business-as-usual Nuclear Power is viable in Texas after an upfront cost reduction of 38%.
- Rising natural gas fuel costs make nuclear competitive at current estimated prices.
- Higher overall natural gas power production costs make nuclear a vital energy source for Texas.
- The Investment Tax Credit is necessary for revitalizing the nuclear industry.
The graph below shows one particularly important takeaway. Traditional understanding is that natural gas, being widely available in the US and relatively cheap to extract and process, is the optimal energy source for Texas. This graph demonstrates how tenuous that superiority is; expected price increases in the upfront construction cost of natural gas plants and the price of natural gas fuel would change the energy landscape. To safeguard the energy future of Texas, investing in the development of nuclear infrastructure is critical.
Heat map of nuclear deployment by natural gas price scenario in 2030. Shows new nuclear capacity deployed by GenX in 2030 across natural gas CAPEX and fuel cost ranges. The fuel costs in $/MMBtu span a range representative of the price in Texas to the price in some European countries. Nuclear CAPEX in these scenarios is the $7,616/kW price point laid out by NREL ATB with full ITC applied. Secondary axes show cost values as ratios relative to 2024 ATB estimates and EIA-reported natural gas prices.
